India Prepares for Below-Normal Monsoon Amid El Niño Concerns
• India is preparing for a below-normal monsoon in 2026, with rainfall expected to be around 92% of the long-period average.
• The below-normal monsoon is largely due to a 62% probability of El Niño conditions developing between June and August.
• The Indian government is implementing proactive measures, including leveraging improved irrigation and high reservoir levels, to mitigate the impact on agriculture.
Below-average monsoon predicted for India in 2026
According to the India Meteorological Department, India is getting ready for a monsoon season in 2026 that is predicted to be below average. The southwest monsoon is predicted to produce roughly 92% of the long-term average rainfall, which would be the first season with below-average rainfall since 2023. The anticipated development of El Niño conditions, which have a 62% chance of occurring between June and August, is largely to blame for this less-than-ideal forecast. El Niño typically causes the monsoon to perform less effectively across the Indian subcontinent.
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