El Niño Expected to Be Strongest in 75 Years, US Forecasters Warn
• The US Climate Prediction Center has reported that the El Niño phenomenon, which emerged across the Pacific last month, is intensifying and could become the strongest in over 75 years. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are currently 1°C (1.8°F) or more above normal, with some areas reaching 2.7°C above normal. The agency estimates an 81% chance that this El Niño will rank among the largest events since
• The phenomenon is expected to strengthen through the end of 2026 and persist into early spring 2027, with a 97% likelihood of continuation. El Niño is known to influence global weather patterns, including increased wind shear in the Caribbean, cooler and wetter winters in the southern US, and heightened drought risks in Australia.
Impact & Risks
The intensifying El Niño could lead to significant global weather disruptions. In the US, it may bring cooler, wetter winters to southern regions, while Australia faces increased risks of drought and wildfires. In India, the phenomenon has already contributed to reduced hydroelectric power generation, with a 21% year-over-year drop in output during peak summer demand. Additionally, the Atlantic hurricane season may see reduced activity due to increased wind shear. These changes could have widespread economic and environmental impacts, affecting agriculture, energy production, and disaster preparedness.
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